Predicting extreme loads on a power line from freezing rainstorms

Several prediction models are checked against experimental freezing rain si mulations and field observations. Goodwin's model is used to estimate ice l oads occurring in Winnipeg, Canada, from the available 126 years of weather data. Emphasis is put on predicting extreme ice loads from this historical record. A Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to address the random variati ons of ice storms. The simulation suggests that the current practice of usi ng a return period-based, extreme ice load as the design ice load is unsafe unless the return period is substantially longer than a power line's lifet ime. A probability-based approach is suggested as a better alternative.