Changes in the abundance of farmland birds in relation to the timing of agricultural intensification in England and Wales

1. Over the past three decades changes in agricultural management have resu lted in increased crop and grass production. This intensification has been accompanied by population declines among farmland bird species and a declin e in farmland biodiversity. We have analysed trends in agricultural managem ent in order to quantify the degree of intensification, and have considered how they match change in the farmland bird community. 2. Changes in agriculture through time (1962-95) were examined quantitative ly for 31 variables representing crop areas, livestock numbers, fertilizer application, grass production and pesticide use. The majority were highly i ntercorrelated because factors facilitating intensification simultaneously affected many management activities. 3. Change in agriculture was measured using detrended correspondence analys is (DCA). The period 1970-88 saw most intensification, characterized by inc reases in the area of oilseed rape, autumn-sown cereals, and the use of pes ticides and inorganic fertilizers. Spring-sown cereals, bare fallow and roo t crops declined. 4. Indices of relative population change between 1962 and 1996 were determi ned for 29 bird species using data from Common Birds Census (CBC) plots on farmland in England and Wales. Principal components analysis (PCA) describe d a gradient from species that had declined most to those that had increase d. 5. The ordinations of agricultural change and bird population change were b roadly matching but with a time lag in the response of birds. The most accu rately measured agricultural variables for the period 1974-91 matched the c hanges in farmland birds more closely. 6. We conclude that large shifts in agricultural management are a plausible explanation for the declines in farmland bird populations. We propose a th reshold model relating to critical amounts of high-quality habitat or food resources that may be relevant in explaining the lag in response of birds, and propose it should be taken into account in predicting the effects of fu ture agri-environment schemes. Identifying individual factors responsible f or bird declines is not possible without detailed experimental work because many components of intensification are interdependent. Birds may be respon ding to a suite of interacting factors rather individual aspects of farm ma nagement. Holistic conservation strategy that encourages general extensific ation of farming practices will be most likely to benefit farmland bird com munities.