We estimated the prevalence of common risk factors for hip fracture and the
numbers needed to treat (NNT) to prevent a hip fracture in various high-ri
sk population groups, using a postal risk factor survey of women aged 70 ye
ars and above from General practices in Grampian and Yorkshire. Recorded ri
sk factors included Frier fracture of any type; low body weight; smoking; a
nd family history of fracture. The prevalence rates of hip fracture risk fa
ctors were 34%, 7% and al 11% for previous fracture, maternal hip fracture
and smoking, respectively for the Grampian practices (low body weight being
defined as falling in the lowest quartile) and 34%, 7% and 7% for a single
practice in the York area. Applying previously published estimates of risk
, NNT analysis produced a value of about 300 for women with no risk factors
, whilst for women with three risk factors it was between 32 and 71, depend
ing on which risk factors were present and assuming intervention reduced fr
acture rates by 30% or 50%. Groups of women at high risk of hip fracture ca
n easily be identified in primary cave and offered treatment, with realisti
c prospects of hip fracture prevention.