Spatial associations among density of cattle, abundance of wild canids, and seroprevalence to Neospora caninum in a population of beef calves

Objective-To determine the epidemiologic plausibility of a sylvatic transmi ssion cycle for Neospora caninum between wild canids and beef cattle. Design-Spatial analysis study. Animals-1,009 weaned beef steers from 94 beef herds in Texas. Procedure-Calves were grouped on the basis of seroprevalence for N caninum and ecologic region in Texas. The Morans I test was used to evaluate spatia l interdependence for adjusted seroprevalence by ecologic region. Cattle de nsity (Number of cattle/259 km(2) [Number of cattle/100 mile(2)] of each ec ologic region) and abundance indices for gray foxes and coyotes (Number of animals/161 spotlight-transect [census] km [Number of animals/100 census mi les] of each ecologic region) were used as covariates in spatial regression models, with adjusted seroprevalence as the outcome variable. A geographic information system (GIS) that used similar covariate information for each county was used to validate spatial regression models. Results-Spatial interdependence was not detected for ecologic regions. Thre e spatial regression models were tested. Each model contained a variable fo r cattle density for the ecologic regions. Results for the 3 models reveale d that seroprevalence was associated with cattle density and abundances of gray foxes, coyotes, or both. Abundances of gray foxes and coyotes were col linear. Results of a GIS-generated model validated these spatial models. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-In Texas, beef cattle are at increased r isk of exposure to N caninum as a result of the abundance of wild canids an d the density of beef cattle. It is plausible that a sylvatic transmission cycle for neosporosis exists.