Forecast bias and MSFE encompassing

Authors
Citation
M. Marcellino, Forecast bias and MSFE encompassing, OX B ECON S, 62(4), 2000, pp. 533
Citations number
22
Categorie Soggetti
Economics
Journal title
OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
ISSN journal
03059049 → ACNP
Volume
62
Issue
4
Year of publication
2000
Database
ISI
SICI code
0305-9049(200009)62:4<533:FBAME>2.0.ZU;2-J
Abstract
We show that the standard condition for MSFE encompassing is no longer vali d when the forecasts to be compared are biased. We propose a simple modific ation of such a condition and of tests for its validity. The theoretical re sults are illustrated by an empirical example on inflation and deficit fore casts, key variables for the formulation of monetary and fiscal policy.