A semi-empirical method has been developed which can predict the characteri
stics of large-diameter, bored, cast in situ piles in Mercia mudstone, at e
very stage of loading up to the ultimate state. The analysis is based on ma
thematical representation of: (a) the mobilization of shaft resistance and
end bearing with increasing pile settlement; (b) the variation in load shar
ing between the pile shaft and base; (c) where present, the additional infl
uence of compressible soil debris on settlement at pile base level; and (d)
the effect of nonlinear stress-strain behaviour of concrete on pile compre
ssion, hence settlement. The predictive method has been validated against a
large database of full-scale pile tests in Mercia mudstone and other cohes
ive soils. The database comprised test piles with or without instrumentatio
n and having a wide range of diameters and lengths. In every case, the pred
ictive capability is judged to be accurate and satisfactory. The method is
also capable of dealing with special circumstances whereby a pile is specif
ically constructed to support load purely in shaft resistance or end bearin
g. The improved predictive capability of this method, in pile analysis, is
expected to result in a more cost-effective construction.