Security dilemmas of nuclear-armed Pakistan

Pakistan's security environment has deteriorated through its adoption of a declared nuclear weapons posture in May 1998. Internal fissures have widene d along regional and sectarian lines as the Pakistani economy falters, unab le to sustain even limited external sanctions following decades of internal mismanagement. Tensions with India have also increased as Pakistan's secur ity managers adopt interventionist policies, based on a misplaced belief in the deterrent value of nuclear weapons. The international community, in pa rticular, the USA's failure to reverse South Asian nuclear proliferation, h as emboldened Indian advocates of nuclear deployment. If India deploys nucl ear weapons and their delivery systems, Pakistan will follow suit. Operatio n-ready nuclear weapons will increase the prospects of an India-Pakistan co nflict that could assume a nuclear dimension. Pakistan's nuclear weapons ca pability will not prevent an Indian conventional attack nor will the presen ce of nuclear weapons deter an Indian accidental, unauthorised or preventiv e nuclear attack. Changed domestic and external priorities alone can buttre ss Pakistani security.