This paper applies econometric models to investigate determinants of electr
ical energy consumption in post-war Lebanon. The impact of the Gross Domest
ic Product (GDP), proxied by total imports (TI), and degree days (DD) on el
ectricity consumption is investigated over different time spans covering th
e period from 1993 to 1997. The time spans are chosen according to the rati
oning level of electricity supply. For the 1993-1994 time span, TI is found
to be a significant determinant of energy consumption, whereas, DD has a n
egative correlation. This inconsistency might be attributed to an extensive
rationing policy followed during this period. For the 1995-1997 time span
which includes reduced rationing period (1995), all electrical energy consu
mption determinants are found to be significant at the 5% significance leve
l. Analysis results for the rationing free 1996-1997 time span also show th
e significance of TI and DD at the 5% level. Furthermore, cointegration ana
lysis for the 1995-1997 and 1996-1997 subsets reveals the existence of a lo
ng-run relationship between all variables. Ln addition, error correction mo
dels for both subsets are developed to predict short-run dynamics. Finally,
statistical performance measures such as mean square error, mean average d
eviation and mean average percentage error are presented for all models. (C
) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classifications: C51;
Q41.