SENSITIVITY OF ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL-GAS CONSUMPTION TO CLIMATE IN THE USA - METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS FOR 8 STATES

A methodology has been developed for assessing the sensitivity of elec tricity and natural gas consumption to climate at regional scales. The approach involves a multiple-regression analysis of historical energy and climate data, and has been applied to eight of the most energy-in tensive states, representing 42% of the total annual energy consumptio n in the United States. Statistical models were developed using two se ts of independent variables-primitive variables such as temperature, r elative humidity, and wind speed, and derived variables including cool ing degree days, heating degree days, and enthalpy latent days. The ad vantages and disadvantages of both modeling approaches are discussed i n this paper, along with sample results for a combined analysis of res idential and commercial consumption in eight states. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.