COMPUTER MODELING OF THE RURAL ENERGY SYSTEM AND OF CO2 EMISSIONS FORBANGLADESH

We present projections of rural energy supply and demand and assess th e contributions to global warming. The output of a dynamic system mode l is used in the LEAP model and overall energy balances are then compi led using a bottom-up approach. Biomass fuels constitute the major ene rgy sources for rural people. A major share of the fuel is consumed fo r cooking using traditional stoves which have an efficiency less than 10%. Most of the biomass comes from crop wastes. Conservative estimate s show tremendous pressure on rural forests for fuelwood. As the resul t, there is overcutting of rural forests resulting in environmental de gradation. Bangladesh is responsible for a small fraction of the total anthropogenic contribution of CO2 but could be seriously affected by climatic change. Energy planning for sustainable development with LEAP is made more effective by using a complementary dynamic system model. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.