Testing for a trend in a partially incomplete hurricane record

The record of annual counts of basinwide North Atlantic hurricanes is incom plete prior to 1946. This has restricted efforts to identify a long-term tr end in hurricane activity to the postwar period. To contrast, the complete record of U.S. landfalling hurricanes extends back to 1930 or earlier. Unde r the assumption that the proportion of basinwide hurricanes that make land fall is constant over time, it is possible to use the record of landfalling hurricanes to extend a test for trend in basinwide hurricane activity beyo nd the postwar period. This note describes and illustrates a method for doi ng this. The results suggest that there has been a significant reduction in basinwide hurricane activity over the period 1930-98.