COGNITIVE PREDICTORS OF INCIDENT ALZHEIMERS-DISEASE - A PROSPECTIVE LONGITUDINAL-STUDY

The present study examined whether cognitive variables measured at bas eline could predict incident cases of Alzheimer's disease (AD) after a 3-year follow-up period. Twenty-six incident AD adults and 179 very o ld (M = 83.5 years) adults without dementia participated in a populati on-based study. Cognitive performance was indexed by the Mini-Mental S tate Examination (MMSE) and multiple indices of memory and visuospatia l and verbal performance. A logistic regression analysis that controll ed for age, gender, and education indicated that MMSE scores were reli able indicators of who would develop AD. In addition, recall of organi zable words, recognition of faces, and letter fluency were reliable pr edictors of subsequent dementia status after differences in MMSE perfo rmance were partialed out. Thus, although the MMSE is useful in predic ting dementia, there is an additional advantage of assessing specific indices of cognitive functioning. Further, supportive episodic memory tasks may be more salient predictors of incident AD than tasks that of fer less supportive encoding or retrieval conditions.