Analyzing educational careers: A multinomial transition model

The logit model of educational transitions has become standard in research in educational stratification. One limitation of the model, however is the assumption that individuals progress through the educational system in a un ilinear sequential mode. Many school systems contain parallel branches of s tudy that are most fruitfully seen as qualitatively different alternative p athways with different probabilities of school continuation attached to the m. This study tests a multinomial model of educational careers, that takes previous paths and grade-point averages into account. Applied to a large Sw edish longitudinal data set the model rests whether conclusions about class stratification in educational attainment based on a logit model are borne out. Results show that the pathway a student has taken through the school s ystem influences the probability of making subsequent educational transitio ns. This result is robust to unmeasured heterogeneity modeled using a laten t class approach. Furthermore, the traditional logit model tends to deflate class-origin effects at early transition points while inflating them at th e transition to higher education. The results give some support to the hypo thesis that origin effects are strongest at more "indirecr" and unusual pat hways.