Cumulative risk and early cognitive development: A comparison of statistical risk models

Although it is generally accepted that social risk factors predict delays i n early cognitive and language development, there is less agreement about h ow to represent such associations statistically. Using data collected prosp ectively on 87 African American children during their first 4 years, this s tudy examined 3 analytic methods for describing a child's level of social r isk: (a) individual risk variables, (b) factor scores derived from those ri sk variables, and (c) a risk index computed by tallying the number of risk conditions present. Comparisons indicated that the individual-risk-variable s approach provides better overall prediction of developmental outcomes at a particular age but is less useful in predicting developmental patterns. T he risk-factor approach provides good prediction of developmental trajector ies when sample sizes are moderate to large. Finally, the risk-index approa ch is useful for relating social risk to developmental patterns when a larg e number of risk variables are assessed with a small sample or when other c onstructs are of primary interest.