SMOGSTOP: A new way of forecasting ozone concentrations at ground level

Every summer, ground-level ozone concentrations rise in Belgium and cause e pisodes of photochemical summer smog. This phenomenon is the cause of well recognized public health distress, especially for people suffering from res piratory diseases. In order to warn groups of sensitive people of forthcomi ng smog episodes, VITO (the Flemish Institute for Technological Research) a nd VMM (the Flemish Environmental Agency) have joined forces to create an o zone pollution forecasting tool called SMOGSTOP (Statistical Model Of Groun d-level Short Term Ozone Pollution). SMOGSTOP is used by Belgian government agencies to issue ozone reports and warnings in the media (TV, radio, inte rnet, etc). In this paper, an overview of the process of ozone formation in Belgium is given, followed by the definition of the explanatory variables which will be used in the approach. Then the methodology behind the approac h is reported and finally the results of the forecasting efforts in the per iod from 1 May to 31 August 1995 are presented. The 1995 summer was selecte d because of a relatively large number of ozone days (29) compared to other summers in Belgium.