An analytic model for capacity planning of prisons in the Netherlands

In this paper we describe a decision support system developed to help in as sessing the need for various types of prison cells. In particular we predic t the probability that a criminal has to be sent home because of a shortage of cells. The problem is modelled through a queuing network with blocking after service. The main objective of our study is to describe our analytica l method and an approximate algorithm to solve this network. Through simula tion studies we evaluate our method. Both the analytic and the simulation t ool are elements of the decision support system.