NEURAL-NETWORK AND LINEAR-REGRESSION MODELS IN RESIDENCY SELECTION

For many years, multiple linear regression models have been used at a residency program to generate preliminary rank lists of residency appl icants. These lists are then used by the admissions committee as an ai d in developing a final ranking to submit to the National Residency Ma tch Program (NRMP). A study was undertaken to compare predictions made using linear regression with those generated by a newer technique, an artificial neural network, A prospective cohort design was used. Seve nty-four applicants to an emergency medicine program were evaluated by faculty and resident interviewers with regard to medical school grade s, autobiography, interviews, letters of recommendation, and National Board scores. Normalization of these scores (by linear transformation of interviewer means) was used to correct for differences among interv iewers, Multivariate linear regression and neural network models were developed using data from the previous 5 years' applicants. These mode ls were used to forecast provisional rank orderings of the candidates. These rankings were combined into a single hybrid list that was used by the admissions committee as the starting point for development of t he final rank list by consensus. Each model's predictions were tested for goodness of fit against the final NRMP rank using Wilks' test. Usi ng the final submitted NRMP rank order as the dependent variable, the neural network yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.77 and an R-2 of 59.4%. The linear regression model exhibited a correlation coefficien t of 0.74 and an R-2 of 54.0%. NO significant difference was found (ch i(2) = 1.08, P = .7). A neural network performs as well as a linear re gression model when used for forecasting the rank order of residency a pplicants. Copyright (C) 1997 by W.B. Saunders Company.