The Uzbek growth puzzle

After the breakup of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan's output fell less than i n any other former Soviet republic, and growth turned positive in 1996/97. Given the country's hesitant and idiosyncratic approach to reforms, this re cord has surprised many observers. This paper first shows that a standard p anel model of growth in transition systematically underpredicts Uzbek growt h from 1992-1996 confirming the view that Uzbekistan's performance constitu tes a puzzle. It then attempts to resolve the puzzle by extending the model in a way that encompasses competing hypotheses of what makes Uzbekistan's output path unusual. The main result is that Uzbekistan's performance can b e accounted for by a combination of low initial industrialization its cotto n production, and its self-sufficiency in energy. [JEL: O53, P24, P27, P52] .