W. Lyons et R. Alexander, A tale of two electorates: Generational replacement and the decline of voting in presidential elections, J POLIT, 62(4), 2000, pp. 1014-1034
This article revisits the question of voter turnout in American presidentia
l elections from the perspective of political generations. We extend previo
us analyses by examining the entire period between 1952 and 1996 by further
specifying the turnout model and, most important, by incorporating a gener
ational component. We hypothesize that the direct effect of membership in t
he cohort born prior to 1932 is to increase voter turnout and the indirect
effect of membership in this cohort is to increase the impact of party-rela
ted variables in accounting for turnout. Finally, we hypothesize that the i
ndirect effect of membership in the cohort born after 1932 is to increase t
he impact of socioeconomic, media-related, and candidate-related variables.
Our findings strongly suggest that penerational effects account for a sign
ificant component of the decrease in turnout among American citizens. The i
mpact of generations is most pronounced in the first half of the voting lif
e cycle.