Influence of mathematical modeling of HIV and AIDS on policies and programs in the developing world

Background: A number of simulation models have been developed to explore th e dynamics of the AIDS epidemic. There seems to be minimal impact of these models on policies and programs. Goal: To describe the major findings from simulation modeling and the impac t of these findings on policies and programs. Study Design: A literature review to summarize the major findings that are supported by more than one modeling group. Results: Simulation modeling has contributed to improved understanding of a number of issues including the demographic impact of AIDS, the value of ta rgeting prevention efforts to high-risk behavior, the importance of control ling STDs, the benefits of early intervention, and the need for combined in terventions, Conclusions: Modeling has played a major role in increasing our understandi ng of the dynamics of the epidemic and in demonstrating how much we still n eed to learn. Its impact on policies and programs has been limited. The nee d for better translation of modeling findings to policy action will be even greater in the future.