Rm. Anderson et Gp. Garnett, Mathematical models of the transmission and control of sexually transmitted diseases, SEX TRA DIS, 27(10), 2000, pp. 636-643
Background: The development of mathematical models to describe and interpre
t the epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections has involved the incr
emental addition of various forms of biological and behavioral complexity t
o simple mathematical templates.
Goal: To review simple and complex models used in study of observed epidemi
ologic pattern.
Study Design: An overview of modeling in sexually transmitted disease epide
miology identifies the function of different types of models.
Results: Simple models have the advantage of transparency and analytical tr
actability and can illustrate the relative merits of different intervention
options. However, real life is replete with complexities that can have eff
ects that are difficult to predict in the absence of a mathematical framewo
rk.
Conclusions: Research should increasingly be based on robust parameterizati
on of model structures and try to capture individual behaviors. Progress wi
ll be most rapid by interdisciplinary work where the clinician, epidemiolog
ist, and mathematician work collaboratively to help improve our knowledge o
f how to best control infection and disease.