A model for estimating mental health service needs in South Africa

Objective. To develop a model for estimating the services and human resourc es needed to care for people with severe psychiatric conditions in a hypoth etical population of 100000 people in South Africa. Method. Annual mental health service needs were estimated in terms of numbe rs of daily patient visits (DPV) in ambulatory care, the number of beds req uired, and staffing. Developed within a spreadsheet format, the model allow s for the adjustment of key service variables according to estimated or exi sting service data. Results. At 100% coverage, 87 DPV, 28 acute beds, and 10 medium-long stay b eds are necessary for a population of 100000 people. This would require 35. 2 full-time equivalent mental health staff: 21.3 for inpatient care, 12.0 f or ambulatory care, and 1.9 for management. Conclusion. Because the model can produce a range of service recommendation s, the assumptions that inform it should be dearly stated and justified. Th is method makes the assumptions on which services are planned explicit acid allows for a rational approach to decision making.