Geographical distributions of temperature change for scenarios of greenhouse gas and sulfur dioxide emissions

Time-dependent geographical distributions of surface-air temperature change relative to year 2000 are constructed for four scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, and are compared to the IS92a sc enario. The four new scenarios have been developed by four different modeli ng teams. The four scenarios are noninterventionist, in that they do not in clude abatement of GHG emissions for the purpose of climate-change mitigati on. The rime evolution of the changes in global-mean surface-air temperatur e and sea level are calculated for each scenario by our energy-balance-clim ate/upwelling-diffusion-model. The temperature changes individually and joi ntly for the radiative forcing by the GHGs and by the sulfate aerosol, whic h is formed in the atmosphere from the emitted SO2. These GHG- and SO2-indu ced global-mean temperature changes are used to scale in time the geographi cal distributions of surface-air temperature simulated by our University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) atmospheric-general-circulation/mixed- layer-ocean model, respectively for a doubling of the CO2 amount and for a 10-fold increase in present-day SO2 emission-the latter from the entire ear th as well as individually from Europe, Siberia, North Africa, Asia, North America.