What explains the success or failure of structural adjustment programmes?

This paper analyses the causes of success or failure of adjustment programm es, using a new database on 220 reform programmes. We find that the success or failure of reform depends on domestic political-economy forces. A few d onor-effort variables are also highly correlated with the probability of su ccess. However, once these effort variables are treated as endogenous, ther e is no relationship between any of them and the success or failure of refo rm. These results have clear implications for how the international communi ty should approach policy-based aid.