Bayesian analysis and mapping of mortality rates for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

This article summarizes our research on estimation of age-specific and age- adjusted mortality rates for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) f ur white males. Our objectives are more precise and informative displays (t han previously available) of geographic variation of the age-specific morta lity rates for COPD, and investigation of the relationships between the geo graphic variation in mortality rates and the corresponding variation in sel ected covariates. For a given age class, our estimates are displayed in a c horopleth map of mean rates. We develop a variation map that identifies the geographical areas where inferences are reliable. Hers, the variation is m easured by considering a set of maps produced using samples from the poster ior distribution of the population mortality rates. Finally, we describe th e spatial patterns in the age-specific maps and relate these to patterns in potential explanatory covariates such as smoking rate, annual rainfall, po pulation density, elevation, and measures of air quality.