Control curves for extreme value methods

A method is presented for the calculation of control curves for the Modifie d Gumbel analysis of extreme values. For each plotted extreme value an uppe r bound, a lower bound and an 'inclusion' probability p are defined such th at for each and every point, the probability of it plotting within the uppe r and lower bounds is equal to p. The loci of the upper and lower bounds th en form the control curves. A rationale for the appropriate choice of p, ba sed on Binomial probability is also presented. Similar procedures are also presented for Cook's Method of Independent Storms. (C) 2000 Elsevier Scienc e Ltd. All rights reserved.