Left turn in Europe? Reactions to austerity and the EMU

Several important changes have occurred in the European Union (EU) over the course of the last decade. In particular, the Maastricht Treaty criteria f or entry into the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) brought economic auster ity across the member states, in spite of high levels of unemployment in th e region. At the same time an electoral shift resulted in parties of the le ft holding government positions in 13 of 15 member states, a marked contras t to the recent past. We examine if recent electoral fluctuations can be at tributed to the traditional explanations of economic voting and anti-incumb ency or if there is evidence of a fundamental shift in the electoral arena following the passage of the Maastricht Treaty. Using pooled cross-sectiona l data for the years 1983-1998, we find that for both EMU members and non-m embers traditional forces help explain electoral outcomes, however an indic ator for the squeeze of the post-Maastricht time period also plays a signif icant role. While left parties have fared well in the post-Maastricht perio d, the strong, negative effect of incumbency, persistent unemployment, and an overall increase in electoral volatility make any conclusions of a left turn in the member states of the EU premature. Rather, it is likely left pa rties will find themselves faced with the difficult task of maintaining sup port while abiding by the constraints imposed by the Maastricht Treaty.