Risk/risk trade-offs in pesticide regulation: An exploratory analysis of the public health effects of a ban on organophosphate and carbamate pesticides

Efforts to reduce pesticide-related risks to consumers and farmworkers ofte n neglect the possibility that measures to reduce the target risk may intro duce or enhance countervailing risks. These may arise from substitute pesti cides or pest-control practices, from increased levels of pests or pest-rel ated hazards, from increased levels of toxic natural pesticides in plants, from increased costs and decreased consumption of health-enhancing fruits a nd vegetables, or from direct income effects on consumers and farmers. The effect of the countervailing risks may partially or completely offset the r eduction in the target risk. A risk-trade-off analysis was conducted of a p otential ban on the use of organophosphate and carbamate (OP/Carbamate) ins ecticides in U.S. agriculture. Although this scenario is extreme, it has th e analytic virtue of dispensing with the infinite number of "next-best" OP/ Carbamates that might be substituted for specific combinations of crops and pests should only selected uses be banned. The analysis relies on detailed descriptions of the alternative pesticides and pest-control measures that would be used for each of 14 major crops. The effects of pest-control cost changes on prices and consumption and effects on consumer and producer inco mes are projected using a general-equilibrium economic model. Several count ervailing risks that may be significant were found, including acute toxicit y to farmworkers from substitute pesticides, cancer and noncancer risks fro m substitute pesticides, and mortality induced by changes in disposable inc ome. Other countervailing risks are more difficult to estimate or weigh. Po tential increases in natural plant pesticides following an OP/Carbamate ban are discussed but data are lacking to quantify the effects. Changes in die t following the ban have both positive and negative effects, and the ultima te change is difficult to estimate. Although a net risk cannot be estimated , several approaches were illustrated that would be useful in risk-trade-of f analyses. Key factors complicating comprehensive analysis of risk/risk tr ade-offs for pesticides were also identified, including data gaps and short comings of current risk assessment methods.