We aim to determine the clinical usefulness of pre-operative serum vascular
endothelial growth factor (VEGF) as a predictor of outcome in patients und
ergoing curative resection for colorectal cancer. Serum VEGF was assayed by
quantitative ELISA in 81 patients prior to curative resection for node-neg
ative (n = 53) and node-positive (n = 28) disease. Median follow-up for pat
ients without cancer death was 27 months (range 21-37). Pre-operative serum
VEGF was significantly higher in patients who went on to develop metastase
s than those who did not (median, 713 pg ml-1 vs. 314 pg ml-1, P < 0.0001).
Using multivariate Cox regression analysis, pre-operative serum VEGF was t
he most important prognostic factor independent of nodal status and adjuvan
t chemotherapy, and was superior to nodal status in predicting outcome (P <
0.00001). At 575 pg ml-1, pre-operative serum VEGF was 64% sensitive and 8
9% specific in predicting the development of metastases in curative resecti
ons, with a positive predictive value of 73% and a negative predictive valu
e of 85%. Pre-operative serum VEGF is a powerful predictor of outcome follo
wing curative surgery for colorectal cancer. These data support the measure
ment of pre-operative serum VEGF as a method for selecting patients who req
uire adjuvant therapy. (C) 2000 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcance
r.com.