Prospects for food demand and supply in Central Asia

Central Asia has experienced massive economic and social shocks during the past decade following the dissolution of the former Soviet Union. Demand fo r cereals, particularly for staple cereals and meats, has fallen significan tly even as production and productivity have plummeted. Although agricultur al reforms were launched in 1991, the performance of the agricultural secto r has been weak across the region. Prospects for food security in Central A sia appear mixed. Projections indicate that a growing and urbanizing popula tion in Central Asia with rising incomes will increase demand for cereals b y 32% between 1995 and 2020 to reach 24 million tons, and for meat by 47% t o reach 2.9 million tons. Improvements in crop productivity will be essenti al to meet the increases in demand projected for the region. Cereal product ion is forecast to keep pace with demand such that Central Asia will be vir tually self-sufficient in cereals. However, national food self-sufficiency or food security does not necessarily translate into household or individua l food security. Moreover, self-sufficiency comes with a high price-tag of opportunities foregone and inappropriate use made of resources. Given the g rowing enthusiasm for food self-sufficiency in Central Asia, it is imperati ve that research be undertaken to assess the full costs and benefits of suc h a policy. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.