Tests for multiple forecast encompassing

Citation
D. Harvey et P. Newbold, Tests for multiple forecast encompassing, J APPL ECON, 15(5), 2000, pp. 471-482
Citations number
20
Categorie Soggetti
Economics
Journal title
JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS
ISSN journal
08837252 → ACNP
Volume
15
Issue
5
Year of publication
2000
Pages
471 - 482
Database
ISI
SICI code
0883-7252(200009/10)15:5<471:TFMFE>2.0.ZU;2-4
Abstract
In the evaluation of economic forecasts, it is frequently the case that com parisons are made between a number of competing predictors. A natural quest ion to ask in such contexts is whether one forecast encompasses its competi tors, in the sense that they contain no useful information not present in t he superior forecast. We develop tests for this notion of multiple forecast encompassing which are robust to properties expected in the forecast error s, and apply the tests to forecasts of UK growth and inflation. Copyright ( C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.