The accuracy of recalled previous voting: Evidence from Norwegian electionstudy panels

Data on individual variations from one election to the next is fundamental in the study of political behaviour, and should, ideally, be collected thro ugh panel studies in which the same people are interviewed at two or more o r elections. This method is, however, costly and time consuming, and most a nalyses of this type are therefore based on recall data, in which the voter s report their choices in the current election and also in previous electio ns. The accuracy of recall data is discussed, based on data from the Norweg ian Programme of Election Research in the period 1977-97. Analyses show tha t one must expect, using this type of data, that about one in four voters w ill give incorrect information about their voting behaviour at the previous election. Erroneous recall of previous voting can be explained by variatio ns in the voters' affiliation to the parties. Whereas stable voters who rem ain with the same party normally report their voting correctly, erroneous r ecall varies around 40 percent for party changers and rises to 70 percent a mong previous non-voters. There is, however, no uniform underlying pattern in erroneous recall during different periods, which implies that it is diff icult to predict exactly how erroneous recall will affect the accuracy of r ecall data in one particular election.