Simple and effective confidence intervals for proportions and differences of proportions result from adding two successes and two failures

Citation
A. Agresti et B. Caffo, Simple and effective confidence intervals for proportions and differences of proportions result from adding two successes and two failures, AM STATISTN, 54(4), 2000, pp. 280-288
Citations number
15
Categorie Soggetti
Mathematics
Journal title
AMERICAN STATISTICIAN
ISSN journal
00031305 → ACNP
Volume
54
Issue
4
Year of publication
2000
Pages
280 - 288
Database
ISI
SICI code
0003-1305(200011)54:4<280:SAECIF>2.0.ZU;2-4
Abstract
The standard confidence intervals for proportions and their differences use d in introductory statistics courses have poor performance, the actual cove rage probability often being much lower than intended. However, simple adju stments of these intervals based on adding four pseudo observations, half o f each type, perform surprisingly well even for small samples. To illustrat e, for a broad variety of parameter settings with 10 observations in each s ample, a nominal 95% interval for the difference of proportions has actual coverage probability below .93 in 88% of the cases with the standard interv al but in only 1% with the adjusted interval; the mean distance between the nominal and actual coverage probabilities is .06 for the standard interval , but .01 for the adjusted one. In teaching with these adjusted intervals, one can bypass awkward sample size guidelines and use the same formulas wit h small and large samples.