Influence of potential climate change on forest landscape dynamics of west-central Alberta

Changes in climatic conditions may influence both forest biomass accumulati on rates and natural disturbance regimes. While changes in biomass accumula tion of forests under various climatic conditions have been described by yi eld equations, large uncertainties exist with regard to disturbance regimes . Under the doubling carbon dioxide scenario, global warming impacts have b een predicted from simulation results of the first generation of coupled gl obal climate model (CGCMI). The calculated fine fuel moisture code (FFMC) d istribution from the simulation results showed a one-point increase compare d with the distribution under current climate conditions. The impact of pre dicted changes in FFMC distributions on fire disturbance patterns, forest v olume, and landscape structure was investigated by using the spatially expl icit model for landscape dynamics (SEM-LAND). The simulation results showed increases in fire disturbance frequency and decreases in forest volume. Th e simulations also showed decreases in landscape fragmentation and landscap e diversity, whereas total availability of core habitat for wildlife increa sed.