Time-dependent seismicity in China

Precise zonation of the territory of China has been performed based on the active known faults, type of faulting and seismicity level. One hundred and forty seven seismogenic regions were defined, forming 10 larger seismic ar eas, and the seismotectonic characteristics in each one of them were invest igated in detail. After checking for data accuracy and completeness of the shallow earthquakes (h less than or equal to 60 km), the regional rime and magnitude predictable model was applied and the model parameters were estim ated. Based on the model applicability in the studied area, probabilities f or the occurrence of strong (M greater than or equal to 6.0) earthquakes du ring the next 10 years were calculated for each seismogenic region. Statist ical tests have been used proving the superiority of the model in compariso n with the time independent one, as well as in comparison with the actual e arthquake occurrence. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.