Predicting the urbanization of pine and mixed forests in Saint Tammany Perish, Louisiana

St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana, has experienced tremendous urbanization, res ulting in the loss of timberland. This study's objectives were to develop a model using parish-level data that estimates the probability of urban deve lopment in a pine or mixed forest parcel, and to identify the parcels most likely to be developed. The geographic data sets used include satellite ima gery from 1981 and 1993, U.S. Census data, population growth estimates from the St. Tammany Perish Government, and road coverages. Logistic regression was used to develop a model that predicts the probability of urban develop ment. Population density, distance to the nearest state or federal highway, distance to the access points to New Orleans, and distance to the nearest interstate interchange all significantly influenced the probability that a parcel would be developed. Using population density predictions for 2003, t he model identified the likely development corridor and the timberlands tha t would be unavailable for long-term fiber production.