Dramatic as it was, the bloodshed of autumn 2000 could not obscure the fact
that little had changed in the basic political parameters of the Palestini
an-Israeli relationship. On one side, any Israeli government, no matter wha
t its ideological persuasion, still has to deal with the Palestinians as a
separate national reality and political entity. On the other side, whether
or not the Palestine Authority issues a unilateral declaration of independe
nce, it will still remain unable to reach key national objectives except th
rough a negotiated settlement with Israel. But a Palestinian state will eme
rge, and may pose an unsettling and potentially destabilising political rea
lity for the two neighbours, Israel and Jordan, with whom it shares intrica
te ties of geography and demography. Governments in both Israel and Jordan
do have policy instruments and resources that should enable them - given a
reasonable level of political foresight - to head off worst-case scenarios
of inter-communal conflict.