Palestine's prospects

Dramatic as it was, the bloodshed of autumn 2000 could not obscure the fact that little had changed in the basic political parameters of the Palestini an-Israeli relationship. On one side, any Israeli government, no matter wha t its ideological persuasion, still has to deal with the Palestinians as a separate national reality and political entity. On the other side, whether or not the Palestine Authority issues a unilateral declaration of independe nce, it will still remain unable to reach key national objectives except th rough a negotiated settlement with Israel. But a Palestinian state will eme rge, and may pose an unsettling and potentially destabilising political rea lity for the two neighbours, Israel and Jordan, with whom it shares intrica te ties of geography and demography. Governments in both Israel and Jordan do have policy instruments and resources that should enable them - given a reasonable level of political foresight - to head off worst-case scenarios of inter-communal conflict.