Capture-recapture, epidemiology, and list mismatches: Two lists

In recent years, capture-recapture methods for closed populations have been extensively applied to epidemiology. For example, suppose we have several incomplete lists of diabetics and we wish to estimate the total number of d iabetics by estimating the number missing from all the lists. A major probl em is that the information about individuals on the lists may have been giv en incorrectly or the information may have been typed incorrectly so that s ome list matches are missed. Using the concept of tag loss borrowed from an imal population studies, we consider methods for estimating both the probab ilities of making list errors and the population size for just two independ ent lists. The effect of heterogeneity on the errors is examined. The metho ds are applied to a large data set of diabetic persons consisting of a list obtained from a survey and a list obtained from doctors' records. It was f ound that the error rates were high and that ignoring the errors led to a g ross overestimate of the total number of diabetic persons.