The global diabetes model: user friendly version 3.0

The attributes of Release 3.0 of the user friendly version (UFV) of the glo bal diabetes model (GDM) are described and documented in detail. The GDM is a continuous, stochastic microsimulation model of type 2 diabetes. Suitabl e for predicting the medical futures of both individuals with diabetes and representative diabetic populations, the GDM predicts medical events (compl ications of diabetes), survival, utilities, and medical care costs. Inciden ce rate functions for microvascular and macrovascular complications are bas ed on a combination of published studies and analyses of data describing di abetic members of Kaiser Permanents Northwest Region, a non-profit group-mo del health maintenance organization. Active risk factors include average bl ood glucose (HbAlc), systolic blood pressure (SBP), low density lipoprotein choleslerol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), triglycerid es, smoking status, and use of prophylactic aspirin. Events predicted inclu de diabetic eye disease, diabetic nephropathy, peripheral neuropathy, amput ation, myocardial infarction, stroke, peripheral artery disease, congestive heart failure, coronary artery surgery, coronary angioplasty, and death. ( C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.