The response of Chesapeake Bay salinity to climate-induced changes in streamflow

Citation
Jr. Gibson et Rg. Najjar, The response of Chesapeake Bay salinity to climate-induced changes in streamflow, LIMN OCEAN, 45(8), 2000, pp. 1764-1772
Citations number
28
Categorie Soggetti
Aquatic Sciences
Journal title
LIMNOLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY
ISSN journal
00243590 → ACNP
Volume
45
Issue
8
Year of publication
2000
Pages
1764 - 1772
Database
ISI
SICI code
0024-3590(200012)45:8<1764:TROCBS>2.0.ZU;2-8
Abstract
Autoregressive statistical models of monthly salinity variations in the mai nstem of Chesapeake Bay are developed for use in climate change application s. Observations of salinity and Susquehanna River flow from 1984 to 1994 ar e used to calibrate the models. Up to 93% of the variance in salinity is ca ptured by these models, with the best fits occurring; in the middle of the bay, where submonthly fluctuations due to river flow and oceanic currents a re damped. Our salinity models use output from a climate-forced hydrologica l model under a doubling of present-day atmospheric CO,. This coupling sche me predicts salinity changes between +3.5% and -27.5% near the mouth of the Susquehanna River, to between +0.1% and -0.7% near the ocean. These ranges demonstrate the uncertainty in climate model predictions, although three o f the four scenarios used indicate increased Susquehanna River flow and the refore decreased salinity. In the highest flow scenario (a 32% annual incre ase) our results show that the bay's isohalines may recede by approximately 6.3 km (about 2% of the length of the bay) near the Susquehanna River, to as much as 55 km (about 17% of the length of the bay) near the middle bay. This shift implies that climate change may have consequences for organisms with low-salinity thresholds, including oysters and crabs.