Problem solving: Complexity, history, sustainability

Sustainability or collapse follow from the success or failure of problem-so lving institutions. The factors that lead to long-term success or failure i n problem solving have received little attention, so that this fundamental activity is poorly understood. The capacity of institutions to solve proble ms changes over time, suggesting that a science of problem solving, and thu s a science of sustainability, must be historical. Complexity is a primary problem-solving strategy, which is often successful in the short-term, but cumulatively may become detrimental to sustainability. Historical case stud ies illustrate different outcomes to long-term development of complexity in problem solving. These cases clarify future options for contemporary socie ties: collapse, simplification, or increasing complexity based on increasin g energy subsidies.