Number of physicians: current and prospective estimate, and an international comparison

Background: In the last decades, the number of of Universities with medical schools has increased dramatically in our country. Aim: To introduce a con ceptual model to estimate the number of physicians that are incorporated to the profession in Chile every year as well as the cumulative number of act ive physicians in specific time frame. To provide information about the num ber of active physicians in the country and compare it with the internation al context. Material and methods: This model includes information about the number of students that are admitted in all medical schools of the country , the dropout rate the number of immigrant physicians from other countries, and the cumulative number of active physicians in the previous period. Res ults: There is an increased number of new medical students starting in 1994 that will produce starting in 2001, a significant increased in the number of new physicians graduated from Chilean Universities. Meanwhile the increa sed number of new physicians in recent years is mainly explained by a signi ficant increase in immigrant physicians. The number of active physicians es timated by the year 2000 is 18,549 and this number will be 25,704 by the ye ar 2007. With these estimated numbers, we introduce a qualitative model tha t allowed us to compare the current number of active physicians in Chile wi th other countries, especially those with a comparable degree of developmen t. This model uses first The Human Development Index and later the per capi ta income of different countries adjusted by purchasing power in USA. Accor ding to these calculations, Chile has a lower number of physicians than sim ilar countries, and this difference will persist, even after the significan t increase in the new physicians expected for the new future. Conclusions: Chile continues to have a lower number of physicians than countries with si milar human development indices (Rev Med Chile 2000; 128: 1167-76).