Objective. To assess radiographically determined disease progression i
n patients in the Minocycline in Rheumatoid Arthritis (MIRA) Trial. Me
thods. A double blind, randomized, multicenter, 48 week trial of oral
minocycline (200 mg/day) or placebo in 6 clinical centers in the Unite
d States. Patients include 219 adults with active RA previously receiv
ing limited treatment with disease modifying drugs. Posteroanterior fi
lms of the hands from baseline and finer visits, blinded for sequence,
were read for erosions and joint space narrowing by trained observers
. Outcomes included rate of disease progression (change/month) and per
centage of patients with progression from baseline, newly involved joi
nts, and newly erosive disease. Results. Using intent-to-treat analyse
s, progression rates for erosions (0.11 +/- 0.42 minocycline, 0.17 +/-
0.41 placebo; p = 0.47) and joint space narrowing (0.16 +/- 0.55 mino
cycline and 0.23 +/- 0.71 place bo; p = 0.14) were similar. (Power 43%
to detect a 50% difference.) Newly erosive joints occurred more frequ
ently in the placebo group (44 vs 32%; p = 0.08), not a statistically
significant difference. Conclusion. Radiographic measurement of diseas
e progression using 4 measures failed to show a significant difference
between minocycline and placebo treatment, although for all methods t
here was a trend toward treatment benefit, consistent with reported cl
inical results. A one year trial duration, high measurement variabilit
y, and slow rate of radiographic progression in this cohort may explai
n the low power to detect a treatment effect. The measurement that den
oted ''newly involved'' joints was most sensitive in detecting change.
In future trials longer term assessment (minimum 2 years) of radiogra
phic changes and further comparison of measures of disease progression
are warranted.