Psychosocial predictors of adult antisocial personality and adult convictions

In the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, 411 South London males ha ve been followed up since age 8. This article investigates the ability of p sychosocial risk factors measured at age 8-10 to predict antisocial persona lity measures at ages 18 and 32 and convictions between ages 21 and 40. The most important childhood predictors were a convicted parent, large family size, low intelligence or attainment, and child-rearing factors, including a young mother and a disrupted family. The accuracy of prediction of antiso cial personality at age 32 on the basis of childhood risk factors measured more than 20 years before was surprising: nearly half of boys with a convic ted parent at age 10 were antisocial at age 32, compared with one in six of the remainder. Over 60% of boys very high risk at age 8-10 became antisoci al at age 32. While the present research shows how far adult antisocial and criminal behavior can be predicted in childhood, more research is needed t o establish the precise causal mechanisms involved. Copyright (C) 2000 John Whey & Sons, Ltd.