THE ELECTORAL GEOGRAPHY OF RECESSION - LOCAL ECONOMIC-CONDITIONS, PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS AND THE ECONOMIC VOTE IN THE 1992 BRITISH GENERAL-ELECTION

Recent debates in the analysis of electoral behaviour indicate the imp ortance of local economic conditions in accounting for the geography o f the vote. Where local economies are strong and strengthening, suppor t for the government is high; where local economies are weak, governme nt support is low. However, research has been hampered by a lack of ap propriate data on local economic conditions. In this paper, some newly available estimates of local economic conditions and of voters' perce ptions of their regional economies are employed to provide insights in to how local economic context affected voter choice at the 1992 Britis h general election. A three-stage analysis reveals the importance of v oters' evaluations of their regional economy: these evaluations were n ot reducible to voters' evaluations of the national economy or of thei r own domestic situations; they were shaped by economic conditions in particular places. But distinct regional variations in British voting persist, even when we control for local economic conditions. The housi ng slump stood out as an important factor in influencing voters' perce ptions, although voters experiencing mortgage difficulties in 1992 did not appear to change their vote as a result. Labour gained support in seats which were badly affected by negative equity.