Prediction of natural disasters

Citation
Oy. Shoucheng et al., Prediction of natural disasters, INT J GEN S, 29(6), 2000, pp. 897-912
Citations number
15
Categorie Soggetti
Computer Science & Engineering
Journal title
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GENERAL SYSTEMS
ISSN journal
03081079 → ACNP
Volume
29
Issue
6
Year of publication
2000
Pages
897 - 912
Database
ISI
SICI code
0308-1079(2000)29:6<897:POND>2.0.ZU;2-Y
Abstract
During the past 30 plus years, we have been dealing with several fundamenta l problems in prediction science. We believe that "the science of human nat ural disasters" (natural disasters affecting mankind) is not well addressed by the classical theory of dynamical systems. It is argued that there exis t problems, when the theory of dynamic systems is used, related to (1) meas urement inaccuracy of low energy effects, (2) computational inaccuracy of a ccumulating error value effects, (3) failures of classical methods under ef fects of vortical motion, etc. At the end, we will explain our methodology of structural prediction, which has been shown to be more effective in prac tical applications than the current widely employed methods.