DENSITY-DEPENDENCE AND WINTER WEATHER AS FACTORS AFFECTING THE SIZE OF A POPULATION OF GOLDEN PLOVERS PLUVIALIS-APRICARIA

The results of annual censuses of a Golden Plover population in the Pe ak District, covering 24 years, are analysed. A strong density-depende nt effect of the population in the previous year explained 26.7% of th e variation in population growth. An additional 15.3% of the variation was accounted for by the severity of winter weather, as measured by m ean monthly air temperature for November to February. There was no sig nificant effect of weather during the breeding season upon Golden Plov er population size, implying that any effects which spring and summer temperature or rainfall may have upon fledging success are masked by o ther factors. The importance of these results is discussed in the ligh t of work on other wader species, and possible declines in Golden Plov er numbers.