Modelling the short term consequences of smoking cessation in England on the hospitalisation rates for acute myocardial infarction and stroke

Objectives-To estimate the short term event and cost consequences of achiev ing two smoking cessation targets for England among a cohort of 35-64 year olds, in terms of the number of hospitalised acute myocardial infarctions ( AMIs) and strokes avoided. Design-A spreadsheet model based on previous work and using data for Englan d was constructed to simulate the effects of achieving the target set out i n the government's tobacco white paper (target 1). We also examined the con sequence of achieving the intensive smoking reduction witnessed in Californ ia (target 2). Results-Target 1 would result in 347 AMI and 214 stroke hospitalisations av oided in the year 2000, and by 2010 this would be 6386 AMI and 4969 strokes avoided. Achieving target 2 would result in 739 AMI and 455 stroke hospita lisations avoided in 2000, and 14 554 AMI and 11 304 strokes avoided by 201 0. Achieving target 1 would save pound 524 million (pound 423 million disco unted at a rate of 2.67% for stroke and 2.31% for AMI) and target 2 would s ave pound1.14 billion (pound 921 million discounted) in terms of National H ealth Service costs. Conclusion-In the short term (11 years), reductions in the prevalence of sm oking will produce sizeable reductions in both events and hospital costs.