Predictors of early retirement in British civil servants

Background: it is uncertain how recent changes in labour force dynamics may have influenced the increasing numbers of people taking early retirement i n industralized countries. The Whitehall II study provides an opportunity t o examine the predictors of early retirement in one of the largest employer s in the United Kingdom. Methods: we examined the factors predicting early retirement in a 7-year fo llow-up period from 1988 to 1995 using longitudinal data on 2532 male and f emale London-based civil servants aged between 50 and 59.5 years. Baseline data on employment grade and duration of time working for the Civil Service were obtained from self-completed questionnaires. The primary factors exam ined included health, work characteristics, questions about job demands and job satisfaction and financial insecurity, wealth and material problems. T ime until early retirement was analysed using Cox proportional hazards mode l. Results: of the 2532 civil servants, 26.7% retired early during the follow- up period. We found that men and women in the higher-paid employment grades , those that had suffered from ill health and those that were less satisfie d with their jobs were more likely to retire early, whereas material proble ms tended to keep people working. Conclusions: our results show that self-perceived health, employment grade and job satisfaction are all independent predictors of early retirement. Qu alitative analyses may further advance our understanding of the retirement process.