Memory retrieval and subjective probability judgements in control and depressed participants

Two studies examined the relationship between memory recall and subjective probability judgement in an attempt to understand the mechanisms involved i n depressive future thinking. In study 1, the relationship between general impression memory (GIM) latencies and subjective probability, and the relat ionship between specific event memory (SEM) latencies and subjective probab ility, were examined in normal mood individuals. Results demonstrated that GIM latencies were correlated with subjective probability. That is, partici pants who were faster to say they had experienced events in the past also t hought themselves more likely to experience similar events in the future. I n contrast, SEMs were not significantly correlated with subjective probabil ity judgements. Study 2 tested the prediction that the same mechanism is op erative in depression, but in this instance it is differential accessibilit y of negative memories which biases judgements for future events. As predic ted, depressed patients, relative to controls, recalled more negative event s and rated negative events as more likely to happen to them in the future. However, subjective probability judgements were not associated with the re call of either GIMs or SEMs in depressed patients, but GIMs were correlated with subjective probability judgements in the control participants. Copyri ght (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.